Rising Security Risks in Guatemala

CENTRAL AMERICA - In Brief 19 Jan 2026 by Fernando Naranjo

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By Fernando Naranjo and Félix Delgado Guatemala is facing a period of heightened security stress with significant institutional and economic implications. Over the past weekend, inmates seized control of three prisons while gang members carried out coordinated attacks that resulted in the murder of nine police officers. These actions appear to have been a direct response to government operations aimed at regaining control of detention centers and tightening prison security. In response, President Bernardo Arévalo’s administration declared a nationwide state of siege for a 30-day period. The measure expands the operational authority of the National Civil Police and the armed forces. At least officially, the government has emphasized that the decree does not suspend normal economic activity, institutional operations, or civilian mobility. From an economic perspective, the decision underscores a clear priority to restore territorial control and reinforce state credibility, particularly at a politically sensitive moment. The Executive has explicitly framed the surge in violence as a reaction to recent efforts to dismantle entrenched corruption networks and criminal capture within public institutions. As such, the security response is not isolated, but part of a broader attempt to reassert the rule of law. In the short term, the economic impact will depend critically on the duration, scope, and execution of the state of siege. If the measure remains temporary, targeted, and predictable, direct economic costs may be moderate. However, a prolonged extension or a perception of generalized militarization would raise downside risks to business confidence, tourism, private invest...