Riding the oil wave
The trade surplus should exceed USD 85 billion in 2026 and in 2027, supported by rising exports and imports contained by the slowdown in activity. A significant part of this result comes from oil, favored by higher prices. Regarding remaining exports the effect of US tariffs has been relatively small, as expressed by a 6% decline in exports, except oil, to the United States, while a fraction of the trade has been redirected to other destinations. Sales to the European Union, favored by the agreement with Mercosur, and to China, which benefits from the dispute with the United States, continue to grow. The main risks to exports are new Trump measures against Brazil, uncertainty about oil prices and legal uncertainty surrounding the agreement with the European Union.
Brazilian exports grew rapidly over the last year and should exceed USD 350 billion in 2026 according to our projections. Considering the slowdown in economic activity limiting the expansion of imports, the trade surplus should reach above USD 85 billion both this year and next.
A significant part of this result stems from the improvement in the oil balance, as we will see below, but there are also structural changes in trade relations with our main partners. In the case of the United States, successive tariff changes had a relatively modest effect on trade, in line with what we expected, and part of the exports was redirected to other destinations.
Trade with the United States has gone through several tariff regimes since April 2025, the month of Trump's “Liberation Day”. At that time, a 10% tariff was imposed on almost all countries, and, in August, Brazil received an additional tariff on several products, raising the total rate to 50%. Following, however, the Supreme Court decision in February, which struck down sweeping tariffs, the additional tariff ceased to be charged while the 10% tariff was maintained based on another legal provision. In July, the United States once again imposed tariffs on Brazil through two new measures, one of 12.5%, linked to suspicions of the use of forced labor, which affects 60 countries, and another of 25%, specific to Brazil and justified by alleged unfair practices in several areas. In parallel, steel, aluminum and copper have paid 50% since 2025, whereas most derivatives of these metals were charged 25% since April of this year.
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