Recovery slows amid weakening global economy

CHINA - Report 29 Sep 2022 by FAN Gang and Chunyang Wang

Growth strengthened, but only slightly. In August, industrial output rose 4.2% y/y, up 0.4 pps, lifting overall January-August growth to 3.6%, up 0.1 pps. Investment rose 5.8% y/y in January-August, up 0.1 pps. The August growth rate was 6.4% y/y, up 2.8 pps. Real estate investment growth rate fell further, to -13.8% y/y, down 1.7 pps from August 2021.

In August 2022, consumption rose 5.5% y/y, up 2.7 pps. This is partly due to the low base number of last year, when consumption rose 2.5%, and was down 6 pps from August 2021.

Exports rose 11.8% y/y, down 12.1 pps from July 2022. This seems partially because all major countries except China are exiting from monetary expansion, leading to weakened demand. This month was the first time exports to the United States had negative growth of -3.8% y/y, dragging down total export growth by 3 pps.

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