Mexico Macro Monitor: Private consumption falls YoY in January for second consecutive month

MEXICO - In Brief 03 Apr 2025 by Francisco González

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Private consumption in January: Second consecutive annual decline driven by sharp contraction in imported goods consumption, in addition to persistent weakness in domestic goods spending. Private consumption fell -0.9% YoY in January 2025, marking the second consecutive decline after maintaining growth since March 2021, although a deceleration trend had begun last August. While growth in 2023 and the first half of 2024 had been concentrated in imported goods, these began slowing in July 2024 due to currency depreciation and fell -5.4% in January. Domestic goods consumption dropped -0.8% annually in January, after stagnating throughout last year. Service spending has also slowed in recent months, reaching its lowest growth rate since 2023 in January (1.3%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, private consumption declined -0.3% in January, primarily due to decreased domestic goods consumption. Amid slowing wage bill growth, private consumption is expected to remain weak, with imports consumption deteriorating further combined with stagnant or even declining domestic goods purchases. Graph 1 Private consumption by type and origin, January 2025 (annual % change) Source: Data FxRates® & INEGI, Analysis GEA Grupo de Economistas y Asociados MMM Private Consumption Indicator Jan 2025