Pre-election political update - October 23, 2026: Eisenkot gains momentum but remains short of 61 seats; markets expected to react modestly

ISRAEL - Report 23 Oct 2026 by Sani Ziv

The latest polls show growing momentum for Eisenkot's bloc, but neither Zionist bloc is projected to reach the 61 seats needed to form a government without including Arab parties in the coalition. Our analysis of previous elections suggests that pre-election polls have been relatively accurate in predicting bloc-level results, although the unique circumstances of this election add uncertainty. The election could therefore lead to prolonged coalition negotiations, a minority government, or another election, with the government operating under an interim budget in the coming months.

Historically, Israeli equity and FX markets have shown relatively modest reactions to election results. However, a decisive victory for Eisenkot's bloc, substantially exceeding current polling projections, could trigger significant shekel appreciation and a sharp equity rally.

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