Political update – September 25, 2026: Eisenkot bloc stabilizes, Arab parties disqualified ahead of Supreme Court review, and do polls underestimate Likud?

ISRAEL - Report 25 Sep 2026 by Sani Ziv

Recent polls suggest that Eisenkot’s bloc is stabilizing, but the post-election arithmetic remains complicated, with several possible coalition scenarios discussed in this report. The disqualification of Ra’am and the Joint List now moves to the Supreme Court, which has overturned similar decisions in the past. We also examine whether polls systematically underestimate Likud or Netanyahu’s broader bloc. The historical evidence suggests a slight tendency to underestimate Likud, but much weaker evidence of a persistent bias against Netanyahu’s bloc as a whole.

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