Poland outlook: inflation on target, demand still fragile, and "hospitalgate" adds political risk

POLAND - Report 06 Jul 2026 by Jan Hagemejer

We assess Poland’s short-term macroeconomic outlook and the emerging political risks surrounding the governing coalition. Inflation fell back to the NBP target in June 2026, mainly due to declining food prices, while core inflation remained broadly stable, indicating that domestic demand pressures are easing only gradually. We find that private consumption is stabilizing rather than accelerating, manufacturing growth is increasingly driven by domestic demand rather than exports, and the inflation path over the coming quarters should remain relatively close to target despite tax-related fuel effects. We also analyze the "hospitalgate" scandal as a political-risk factor: while not yet a decisive electoral shock, it may contribute to a broader anti-incumbent narrative by undermining KO’s image of competence and procedural fairness ahead of the 2027 election.

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