Next move most probably a 100 bps cut

TURKEY - Report 12 Feb 2026 by Murat Ucer

The CBRT held its first Inflation Report meeting of the year today. As expected, the Bank kept its interim targets unchanged at 16% for 2026 and 9% for 2027, while setting an interim target of 8% for 2028. But the Bank revised its 2026 year-end inflation forecast range upward by two percentage points (pps) to 15-21% from 13-19% previously, The Bank sees inflation decelerating to a range of 6-12% by end-2027.

In his presentation, Governor Fatih Karahan, as promised, detailed the reasons as to why actual inflation (30.9%) finished the year 6.9 percentage points above the Bank’s interim target of 24%.

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