Mexico Macro Monitor: Industrial Production Shows Moderate Recovery but Remains Weak in Early 2025

MEXICO - In Brief 11 Apr 2025 by Mariano Ruiz-Funes
In February 2025 (seasonally adjusted figures), industrial production expanded by 2.5% year-over-year and 0.4% compared to the previous month. This marked a recovery from January, when output had contracted sharply. However, due to the weak start to the year, the cumulative growth for the first two months remained negative (-1.2%). The rebound in February is unlikely to be sustained in the coming months, given the prevailing domestic and external uncertainty affecting both production activity and consumer demand. GRAPH 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, 2024-2025 (% Change. Seasonally Adjusted) Source: Data FxRates®. Analysis GEA Grupo de Economistas y Asociados Sector performance: Manufacturing posted the strongest relative growth (+2.9% year-over-year, +0.3% for the two-month period) followed by Construction (+2.8% year-over-year, but -3.0% in the two-month period); Mining and Electricity, Gas, and Water supply showed minimal changes. Subsector Trends (Jan-Feb 2025): out of 27 industrial subsectors, 16 recorded annual declines, while only 11 saw growth. GRAPH 2 INDUSTRIAL SECTORS: FEB AND JAN-FEB, 2025 (YoY % Change) Source: Data FxRates®. Analysis GEA Grupo de Economistas y Asociados This suggests that despite February's modest improvement, industrial activity remains fragile amid ongoing economic challenges.https://d34dkm9pj0t7...https://d34dkm9pj0t7...

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