March CPI in focus this week; 2025 inflation forecast revised lower amid oil price drop
ISRAEL
- In Brief
14 Apr 2025
by Sani Ziv
Israel marked the beginning of Passover this weekend, with 59 hostages still held in Gaza—24 of them presumed alive. Reports over the weekend suggested progress in hostage deal negotiations. On the Iranian front, following an initial round of indirect nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, both sides hinted at constructive engagement ahead of a likely follow-up session in a new location. Financial markets were closed for trading and are open again today. The upcoming week (Chol Hamoed) is traditionally quiet in terms of public sector activity and official data releases. Before the holiday, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange rose 2.63% (TA-90 index), ending the week nearly unchanged. Looking ahead, the trading sentiment in Tel Aviv is expected to open on a positive note, supported by Friday’s rebound on Wall Street. This week’s key event: March CPI release (Tuesday) The Central Bureau of Statistics is expected to release March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday, with markets anticipating a 0.3%-0.4% increase for the month and an annual inflation rate of 3.2%-3.3%. The March CPI is likely to be influenced by seasonal increase in footwear, apparel, and domestic vacations. Looking ahead, inflation prints for April and May are expected to remain elevated due to seasonal effects and the increase in public transportation fares. In addition, the shekel's depreciation in April is likely to exert upward pressure on import prices. However, these inflationary forces may be partially offset by the sharp drop in global oil prices. EIA recently revised its year-end Brent forecast downward to $64 per barrel, from $72 previously. Following the downward revision to global oil price...
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