Economics: The latest public finance results are favorable but insufficient to halt debt growth as Pemex continues to deteriorate financially
The evolution of public finances in the first half of 2025 and Pemex’s recently released operating results for the second quarter of 2025 point to a complex outlook for macroeconomic stability and the Mexican economy’s medium-term prospects. Government finances continued to deliver favorable results in June due to increased non-oil tax collections and non-tax revenues, while public spending continued to contract, although, as anticipated, to a lesser extent than in previous months. Despite a relative improvement in revenue indicators and a reduction in spending, it is highly unlikely that this year's deficit targets will be met, meaning that the public debt balance will continue to grow.
In the case of Pemex, the operational deterioration slowed slightly in the second quarter of 2025, but the financial situation showed no improvement, and the company continues to be highly dependent on the actions and support of the federal government. Although the company's financial debt was reduced thanks to federal government support, its recognized and documented debt to suppliers increased from 404 billion pesos in the first quarter of 2025 to 431 billion pesos in the second quarter, despite repeated announcements by President Sheinbaum that "payments will begin next month."
This week’s Outlook analyzes the recent evolution of public finances and Pemex's operating and financial indicators, as well as their implications. In this week’s indicators section we cover preliminary GDP results for the second quarter and labor market and trade data for June.
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