Kazakhstan macro: the widening current account surplus to keep the tenge strong this year

KAZAKHSTAN - Report 21 Sep 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

With oil prices hovering around $100/bbl and future trends still uncertain, oil-producing countries have enjoyed extra revenues despite various disruptions to exports. Kazakhstan is one such country, with reduced oil production due to export issues via the CPC, its main oil export route. Still, with Brent prices surging past $100/bbl in mid-March and averaging well above expectations for the year, Kazakh exports have soared, and the tenge has continued to gain value. Recently, the USD/KZT traded below 450, compared to about 550 a year earlier. Interestingly, the 2026 republican budget projected an average rate of 540 for this year. Even so, high oil prices helped offset the impact of the stronger tenge, keeping oil-related tax revenues robust.

With uncertainty still high, questions naturally arise about the tenge’s future, potential correction, and timing. Apart from exports and the trade balance, one has to keep an eye on FDI and also on the income balance in the current account. Direct investment in Kazakhstan’s manufacturing and service sectors could lead to more profit repatriation and add pressure on the tenge, especially if oil prices drop to lower levels. However, it’s still too early to gauge the exact impact. For the next few years, oil prices and capital inflows will likely remain the key external factors influencing the tenge.

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