Kazakhstan macro: Tax reform to make intra-budgetary transactions less distortive

KAZAKHSTAN - Report 22 Dec 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

Recent budget execution statistics show the economy is in good shape, with local tax collection continuing to outperform. Mid-year, the initial 2025 target was revised upward, and by November tax revenues had hit 94.4% of that revised goal. Local budgets, which also get transfers from the republican budget (itself funded partly by the National Fund), received 91.4% of their planned transfers and posted a surplus of around KZT0.5 trillion—well above the KZT0.7 trillion deficit target. Spending plans were also revised up this year, and by November local budgets had financed only 82% of the annual plan. Therefore, that surplus will likely disappear by year-end as spending catches up.

The key takeaway is that taxes unrelated to exchange rates or oil prices—such as personal and corporate income taxes (excluding oil-and-gas companies), property taxes, excises, and others paid to local budgets —outperformed even the revised targets. Another key point is that planned local budget tax revenues (around KZT8.2 trillion in 2025) only slightly surpass the targeted transfers from the republican budget (KZT7.7 trillion). This makes keeping a close eye on the republican budget essential for understanding the nation’s public finances.

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