Kazakhstan macro: high oil prices and the tax reform support budget revenues in 5M26

KAZAKHSTAN - Report 11 Jun 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

The Ministry of Finance announced that in 5M26, total revenues of the republican budget reached nearly KZT9.3 trln, or 40.5% of the annual plan. While this looks solid overall, tax revenues of KZT7.3 trln fell slightly short in our view, hitting 38.3% of the yearly target. The Ministry of Finance, however, viewed it as slightly above its plan for this period, probably because it’s quite common for economic activity to be higher in the second half of the year. At the same time, however, February and May are two of the four months when tax collections exceed the monthly average, as some taxes are paid quarterly (and payments are due these months), which has somewhat inflated the average. Hence, bringing in just over a third of the annual target in the first five months isn’t great, even if VAT collection has jumped compared to the same period in 2025.

This doesn’t mean the tax reform was a failure—we consider it a success, although the expectations may have been overly optimistic. Because of the tax reform the republican budget has become less reliant on non-tax revenues, transfers, the oil prices, and the exchange rate. Overall, the budget execution numbers support the view that the economy is growing steadily, although the rate of growth has moderated in the aftermath of last year’s overheating.

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