Kazakh economy keeps growing at decent rate, results by segments remain mixed

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 17 Oct 2024 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 9M24, the short-term indicator (the Bureau’s monthly flash estimate of the country’s economic activity) grew by 5.3% y-o-y and seemingly accelerated sharply in September as, in 8M24, it was up by 4.4%. Note that this measure is weighted activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, communications, and trade (wholesale and retail combined). Note that this indicator doesn’t include various public sector activities that usually grow relatively slowly, such as education, government services, etc. The Bureau doesn’t publish either m-o-m growth numbers for the short-term indicator or y-o-y ones for individual months – only cumulative numbers for incremental periods are available. A sharp rise in the short-term indicator in September largely originated from a low base effect in agriculture, as last year, agriculture was deeply down amid bad weather conditions and poor harvest. In 9M24, agriculture was up by 11.4% y-o-y and was the fastest-growing segment among the most sizable ones. Construction also grew fast in 9M24 (by 10.1% y-o-y). Communications and transportation/warehousing segments grew by 6.4% and 8.0% (also y-o-y in 9M24). Trade grew by 6.3%, mainly driven by the retail segment. Retail sales increased by 10.3% y-o-y in September alone and 7.3% y-o-y in 9M24. The industry delivered less impressive results, having grown by a mere 3.1% y-o-y in 9M24. In September the industry grew by 3.5% y-o-y. Meanwhile, the mining segment was up y-o-y by 1.2% and 3.2% in 9M24 and September and demonstrated somewhat better results last month. The manufacturing segment grew by 4.8% and 4.1% (in 9M24 and September, y...