It's all about politics and the strength of our institutions as Jamaica changes its Finance Minister
The long wait of over two months to see who would replace Jamaica’s Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke ended last week, literally as he was at the airport on his way to Washington on Wednesday to take up his new position at the IMF at the very end of October. Prime Minister Andrew Holness announced the appointment of Mrs. Fayval Williams, formerly the Minister of Education, as Jamaica's first female Minister of Finance and the Public Service, and one of his key advisors, Alok Jain, as the supporting Minister of State.
Minister Williams is a Chartered Financial Analyst by profession, has an MBA with a concentration in finance from the Wharton Business School of the University of Pennsylvania, and a BA (cum laude) in Economics from Harvard University. Most importantly, she also has experience, having been in the Ministry of Finance before as Minister without portfolio, as well as in Jamaica’s financial sector, after having worked in the United States. She is a safe pair of hands. Alok Jain, since he retired as a partner from Price Waterhouse, has been a key “special” advisor for several years based in the Office of the Prime Minister.
In October, former Minister Clarke seems to have been working furiously to deal with all his unfinished business before his departure to Washington.
Supplementary estimates
The first supplementary budget estimates were tabled in the house of representatives on October 8, and approved a week later on Wednesday October 15, along with the interim Fiscal Policy Paper 2024/25 and the Public Bodies First Supplementary Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure for the Year ending March 2025.
The estimates raised total government expenditure by approximately J$40.7 billion, increasing the overall budget to J$1.38 trillion. Hurricane Beryl-related expenditure exceeded J$10.5 billion.
Fiscal research center funded
On October 22nd, The University of the West Indies (UWI) signed a partnership with the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy (IFSD), based at Canada’s University of Ottowa, to launch its new Fiscal Research Centre. Minister of Finance Dr Nigel Clarke and regional economic advisor David Rosenblatt of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), represented the funding partners. Minister Clarke noted that the special grant of J$200 million for the Fiscal Research Centre from the Jamaican government had been approved the previous week, while Rosenblatt advised that the IDB was planning to provide US$250,000 for climate finance research and US$400,000 for general research and capacity-building.
Politics
On October 27, The Gleaner reported that the latest Don Anderson poll showed a 9.1 percentage-point lead for the opposition PNP, a marginal increase of just over 1.3 per cent since the last published poll of April 2024, with 39.3 per cent for the PNP, and 30.2 per cent for the ruling Jamaica Labour party (JLP).
This is the widest margin the PNP has held over the JLP in recent months, although 28.4 per cent of respondents are still unsure. One of the key findings is the shift in young voters (the age group 18 to 24) to the PNP, which now has good levels of support across the age groups, with relatively no difference in the level of support for the parties by gender. This was surprising as it was expected that the JLP would have a decades-long lead with young people who grew up in the 18 years of PNP rule between 1989 and 2007, although it has always been difficult for parties to win more than two terms in Jamaica.
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