Israeli geopolitics: stability holds in Lebanon, but Gaza uncertainty and political tensions mount

ISRAEL - Report 07 Mar 2025 by Sani Ziv

1. Gaza ceasefire in jeopardy – The expiration of the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire on March 1 has made a return to war increasingly likely, as progress toward a second phase remains stalled.

2. Israel’s stance – Israel supports extending prisoner-hostage exchanges and humanitarian aid but rejects a full withdrawal from Gaza, including the Philadelphi Corridor, signaling its intention to continue military operations.

3. Palestinian stance – Hamas insists on a full Israeli withdrawal and a permanent ceasefire as conditions for a second phase of the truce, while the Palestinian Authority (PA) seeks greater political involvement in post-war Gaza. However, Hamas refuses to cede governance to the PA, creating internal Palestinian divisions that complicate negotiations.

4. Israeli political instability – The government faces internal coalition tensions, with far-right parties threatening to leave if Israel agrees to a ceasefire that includes withdrawal from Gaza, complicating Netanyahu’s decision-making.

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