Industrial growth unexpectedly accelerates in October

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 27 Nov 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Rosstat reported that in the aftermath of unimpressive performance in the previous months (0.7% y-o-y in 9M25) industrial production grew by 3.1% y-o-y in October and 3.0% m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms. In 10M25, the industry expanded by 1.0% y-o-y as a result. The numbers still don’t look impressive, but October could have been sort of a tipping point. A sudden acceleration in October well exceeded the usual seasonal effects, such as growing production of energy resources in colder months. Still, one cannot rule out that unexpectedly faster growth last month could have been a result of added activity that was statistically unaccounted for in the previous months. If so, monthly numbers published previously could be revised in the future. So far, it looks as though the mining segment grew by 1.3% y-o-y in October and contracted by 1.7% y-o-y in 10M25. The latter figure looks like an improvement compared to the 4.0% y-o-y contraction in 1Q25. If the current trend holds, then in 2025 as a whole, the mining segment could contract by about 1.2% with prospects of positive growth in 2026. The manufacturing segment grew y-o-y by 4.5% and 3.1% in October alone and 10M25 with prospects of staying well above 3.0% in 2025. Various sub-segments within the manufacturing sector performed very differently with the so-called “other transport vehicles and equipment” firmly holding the lead (it grew y-o-y by over 40% in October and by about 33% in 10M25). Production of cars contracted by nearly 10% y-o-y in 10M25 pointing to a weakening consumer demand. In a few days Rosstat will publish its regular set of monthly economic indicators and we’ll have a clearer view of Russia’s current...