Positive results at the end of 2025

INDONESIA - Report 09 Jan 2026 by Cyrillus Harinowo

The Indonesian economy has shown resilience in the midst global uncertainty as well as uncertainty in domestic policies. The external balance remained strong, but the fiscal situation faced increasing challenges. The real sector continued to be driven by the external accounts, domestic consumption, and the expansionary fiscal situation. Therefore, Indonesia's economic growth is expected not to depart much from earlier predictions of around 5%.

The Central Board of Statistics reported that the trade balance for November 2025 resulted in a surplus higher than the previous month. Exports for November were $22,520.8 million while imports reached $19,858.5 million, bringing the trade surplus to $2,662.3 million. While above that of the previous month, it was lower by $1,682.1 million, or by 38.72%, than that of November 2024, which was $4,344.4 million. Cumulative exports from January to November reached $256,562.1 million, while cumulative imports for the same period reached $218,022.7 million. Therefore, the cumulative surplus was $38,539.4 million, higher than the surplus of the previous year of $29,239.4 million.

At the same time, the Ministry of Finance announced the results of Indonesia's fiscal performance, which faced increasing challenges as displayed by the rising budget deficit, even though it remains within a safe corridor. Government revenues declined slightly compared with the previous year and achieved less than 90% of those budgeted. At the same time, government expenditure continued to increase from the previous year. This challenge led the Minister of Finance to do a reversal in policy by withdrawing government money from the state banks, which had been injected with funds just two months earlier.

The Central Board of Statistics also reported the Consumer Price Index for December 2025. M/M inflation in December 2025 stood at 0.64%, leading to a Y/Y inflation rate of 2.92%. Given the inflation situation, Bank Indonesia decided to keep the benchmark interest rate steady with 4.75% at its monthly meeting of the Council of the Governors on December 16-17, 2025.

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