In the final stretch

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Dec 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

The tone of the Copom Minutes, released yesterday, was somewhat more upbeat in its assessment of the prospective inflation scenario than that conveyed in the Statement following the meeting, but, even so, without elements that would allow us to affirm, as we had come to believe, that the beginning of the monetary easing process will take place in January.

To begin with, there is a better assessment of the international environment, which, although still uncertain, is perceived by the Committee as “less uncertain, requiring ‘caution on the part of emerging countries’”, whereas in the previous version it required “particular caution”.

This, however, represents a smaller portion of the improvement perceived by the Central Bank, especially when compared with developments related to the domestic scenario.

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