Higher hopes in diplomacy meet higher inflation forecasts

TURKEY - Report 10 Nov 2024 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Ankara has Great Expectations from the second Trump presidency, some of which seem plausible. Yet, it is somewhat premature to make precise forecasts of exactly in which topic progress can be made in the troubled bi-lateral relationship, until Trump selects his cabinet.

Additionally, what Trump does to secure peace in Ukraine and the Middle East is probably more important to the relationship than any bargaining between the two nations.

At home, MHP leader Bahceli officially began his campaign to make Erdogan electable a third time. It appears that AKP-MHP are now going all out to legislate a new constitution to secure Erdogan another term. The alliance is employing a lot of sticks and few carrots to convince other parties to vote for a new law. Yet, the politics author still believes the constitutional path to Erdogan’s eligibility is a dead end. At the end, Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli will have to bargain with CHP leader Ozel, who is becoming less cooperative by the day.

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