GULF WEEKLY: Smelters and tankers struck, Fitch puts Qatar and RAK on RWN, Qatar and Dubai stimulus packages

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 03 Apr 2026 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Hopes for peace talks receded, and Trump's statements imply escalation, then unilateral withdrawal.
* Attacks on the GCC included Bahrain and UAE aluminum plants, UAE gas, a refinery and power plants in Kuwait and oil tankers off Qatar and Dubai.
* Oil rebounded to $109 as tensions rose. At the same time, a few tankers did transit Hormuz and Oman and Iran are reportedly discussing new protocols.
* Saudi oil piped east reached the maximum of 7m b/d with crude/product exports nearing 6m.
* Bahrain’s UNSC resolution on Hormuz is going to a vote, but had to be watered down to avoid vetoes.
* Saudi Arabia’s current account recorded a -2.6% of GDP deficit in 2025.
* PIF is reportedly considering a $5bn investment in the upcoming SpaceX IPO.
* The UAE’s PMI dipped in March to a five-year low, although it wasn’t as sharp a fall as expected.
* Dubai announced a small stimulus package, focused on hotel fees and customs duties.
* Qatar and RAK were placed on Rating Watch Negative by Fitch, the first sovereign rating actions.
* Qatar’s central bank announced liquidity measures to support banks, including unlimited 3-month repos.
* In good news for QatarEnergy, its 18m t/yr Golden Pass LNG facility in Texas began production.
* Qatar also reported a strong 2025 GDP non-oil growth of 4.8%, although hydrocarbons dipped -0.5%.
* S&P affirmed Oman and revised up its current account forecast to a surplus and sees a fiscal balance.
* Alba is expected to reduce operations to about 30% capacity, from about 80%, after the Saturday strike.
* Databank updates: Qatar GDP, Saudi & Kuwait BoP, Oman forecasts, UAE PMI.

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