GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ hikes again, IMF Saudi Art IV, Kuwait’s finance minister resigns, Israel to fully occupy Gaza

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 08 Aug 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* OPEC+ hiked allocations for September by 547k b/d, fully unwinding the Jan-24 voluntary cuts.
* Brent crude dipped midweek to a two-month low of $65 on the OPEC+ hike and US-Russia news.
* MBZ visited Moscow as Putin said that the UAE could host a meeting with Trump.
* PMIs were mixed, with slowdowns in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE but a strong rebound in Dubai.
* Saudi real estate prices were weak for residences but surged 13% y/y for commercial plots.
* Aramco’s profit declined for the 10th quarter, but it maintained its dividend. SABIC made a loss.
* The IMF’s Saudi Art IV sees a -4% of GDP deficit in 2025, but debt of 48% of GDP ($0.9trn) in 2034.
* The Saudi unemployment target for 2030 was lowered to 5% given rapid progress recently.
* Fitch revised up its fiscal forecast for Abu Dhabi’s fiscal surplus to 4.5% of GDP in 2025-26.
* There is renewed talk of an IPO for EGA, which just exported its first low-carbon aluminum.
* A Qatari-led consortium will invest $4bn to expand Damascus airport, and a UAE firm to build a metro.
* Kuwait’s finance minister unexpectedly resigned and was replaced by the electricity minister.
* A new managing director was appointed for KIA, Sheikh Saoud Salem Abdulaziz al-Sabah.
* Oman announced plans for its first waste-to-energy plant, and Bahrain announced its first solar plant.
* Lebanon passed a bank restructuring law and announced an intention to disarm Hezbollah.
* Israel approved a plan to fully occupy Gaza City and other parts of Gaza not yet under its control.
* Databank updates: Saudi fiscal, Saudi and Abu Dhabi forecasts, PMIs and OPEC+ plans.

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