GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends cuts, dividends support the Saudi Q3 fiscal balance, Kuwait’s H1 surplus shrinks, PMIs rise across most of the GCC
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* 8 OPEC+ members, half in the GCC, delayed tapering voluntary cuts until January.
* Most Gulf states mirrored the Fed’s interest rate cut, but Qatar went further, and Kuwait held flat.
* Gulf leaders congratulated Trump, including a call from MBS.
* PMIs rose across the Gulf, except in Dubai, led by KSA at 56.9, and with Kuwait the most improved.
* The Saudi fiscal deficit rose to -2.8% of GDP in Q3, despite continued windfall Aramco dividends.
* Aramco has returned to a net-debt position, after two years of cash surpluses, and will likely borrow.
* The UAE signed yet another Cepa, this time with Australia, an important trade partner.
* The UAE announced more ambitious Paris Agreement emissions reduction goals, -47% by 2035.
* Adnoc signed a 15-year LNG deal with Germany’s SEFE, and QatarEnergy’s CEO visited Japan to advance LNG talks.
* Qataris voted resoundingly to amend their constitution to end elections to the Advisory Council.
* Kuwait recorded a small surplus in the first half of its fiscal year, but a full-year deficit is expected.
* Oman’s planned personal income tax will only apply to salaries starting at $78k.
* Another major IPO is being planned in Oman, for OQ Base Industries, its methanol and LPG unit.
* Bank merger talks have begun in Bahrain between NBB and BBK.
* Iranian rhetoric hardened on tit-for-tat strikes against Israel. Netanyahu sacked his defense minister.
* Intense assaults continued in northern Gaza and southern Lebanon, with no progress on ceasefires.
* Databank updates: Saudi & Kuwait fiscal, Qatar forecasts, PMIs, OPEC+ plans, Omani tourism.
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