GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ affirms taper, Aramco cuts dividends, UAE fiscal surplus, Bahraini budget considers tax hikes

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 07 Mar 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Brent crude touched a 4-year low of $68 on OPEC+ taper and Trump tariffs.
* Kazakhstan recommitted to overproduction compensation; Iraq failed to restart northern exports.
* PMIs mainly eased but remained strong in UAE and Saudi but weak in Kuwait and Qatar.
* Aramco expects to cut dividends by a third this year, scaling back the performance component.
* Ukraine’s president will meet MBS and US officials in Riyadh. Trump may soon meet Putin there.
* The UAE’s surplus in 2024 declined by a quarter but was still more than 5% of GDP.
* UAE GDP growth remained robust in Q3, including 4.6% for the non-oil sector.
* Fitch revised up its forecasts for RAK’s GDP growth and fiscal balance.
* Adnoc reached an agreement with OMV on a $60bn chemicals merger and mooted investing in US gas.
* Kuwait stripped more citizenships; the interior minister expects this to alter parliament.
* Capital Intelligence upgraded Oman to BBB- and maintained a positive outlook.
* Bahrain’s draft 2-year budget moots a VAT hike and corporate tax to achieve a 2026 surplus.
* Bahraini construction is suffering from a shortfall in materials, partly because of demand in KSA.
* Israel and the US demanded immediate hostage releases and rejected an Arab plan for Gaza.
* The first major Syria clashes since the fall of Assad happened in his home province of Latakia.
* Databank updates: Bahrain, UAE & Saudi fiscal; UAE GDP; RAK forecasts; Bahrain/UAE Inflation, PMIs.

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