GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises on new Iranian attacks, Saudi manufacturing resilient in March, UAE to expand bypass pipeline
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Brent oil is back at $110 amidst more attacks on shipping, despite some Hormuz transits.
* There were new Iranian strikes on the UAE and Kuwait, as well as ships near Qatar and Oman.
* Trump called Iran’s latest proposal “garbage,” and there was no breakthrough in China.
* There were reports of UAE and Saudi retaliatory strikes on Iran in March/April.
* The IEA and even OPEC revised down oil demand forecasts, although with a big gap between them.
* April oil production declined further in most Gulf states, with only the UAE seeing a small increase.
* Aramco’s 25% surge in Q1 profits will feed into income tax (less subsidies) in the Q2 fiscal outturn.
* Saudi manufacturing was remarkably resilient in March, supported by trucking to the Red Sea.
* There were few signs of war in the UAE’s March banking data, and some key indicators improved.
* A -9% m/m decline in the UAE’s international reserves was largely due to a methodological change.
* The UAE plans to double its Hormuz bypass pipeline by 2027 to 3-3.6m b/d.
* L’imad and Adnoc are partnering with BlackRock and Temasek in a $30bn infrastructure fund.
* Abu Dhabi investors may own about 8% of US AI chipmaker Cerebras, which soared in its IPO.
* The UAE denied a claim by Netanyahu that he visited Abu Dhabi secretly in March.
* Kuwait arrested four Iranian infiltrators, and Bahrain arrested another 41 people linked to the IRGC.
* Oman India Fertilizer Company is considering a $2.5bn IPO in June.
* Alba production was only down by -14% in Q1, but its profits rose on higher prices.
* Iraq’s parliament approved PM Ali al-Zaidi and a partial cabinet, with defense and interior unfilled.
* Databank updates: Saudi fiscal (Aramco), Oman and Saudi inflation, RAK forecasts.
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