GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops $10 due to trade war and OPEC+ hike, Saudi Arabia’s current account falls into deficit, Abu Dhabi sees strong GDP growth, Bahrain’s FDI surges in Q4
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Brent oil crashed by $10 in two days to $65, a 4-year low, due largely to the US trade war.
* OPEC+ also announced unexpected production hikes to punish Kazakh overproduction.
* GCC states all have trade deficits with the US, so they were hit with the minimum 10% tariff rate.
* Trump said he will visit Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar, probably by mid-May.
* Saudi Arabia recorded a small current account deficit of -0.5% of GDP in 2024, its first since 2020.
* Abu Dhabi’s GDP grew by 3.8% in 2024 (6.2% non-oil), led by transport, construction and finance.
* Qatar released full Q4 GDP data but not a time series, from which we estimate 3.9% non-oil growth.
* S&P only slightly reduced its Oman forecasts on lower oil assumptions; debt falls to 31% of GDP.
* Bahrain’s current account surplus eased to 5% of GDP as a weaker trade balance offset stronger services.
* Bahrain’s net inward FDI remained strong at 5.7% of GDP, boosted by a $2bn surge in Q4.
* Bahrain’s partial 2024 revenue was disclosed, showing a 3% VAT increase but an -11% oil decline.
* Abu Dhabi’s CYVN completed its purchase of McLaren from Bahrain’s Mumtalakat.
* Hamas accepted a Phase One Gaza ceasefire extension proposal from Qatar, but Israel did not.
* Israel launched new airstrikes on Beirut and Syria.
* Syria announced a new government that includes minorities, technocrats and former Baathists.
* Databank updates: Bahrain fiscal; Qatar & Abu Dhabi GDP; Saudi & Bahrain BoP etc.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report