GULF WEEKLY: Oil dips after Israeli strikes, FII convenes in Riyadh, GCC-NZ FTA signed, Dubai announces budget

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 01 Nov 2024 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil dipped after Israeli strikes on Iran did not target oil facilities.
* The IMF forecasts fiscal breakeven oil prices for 2025 from $45 for Qatar to $125 for Bahrain.
* The GCC signed a rare FTA with New Zealand, a month after a UAE bilateral Cepa.
* The Saudi flash GDP for Q3 returned to overall growth but the non-oil sector slowed slightly.
* The Saudi current surplus narrowed to 1.6% of GDP in Q2 on weaker investment income.
* Saudi Arabia raised $6bn in syndicated loans to settle Binladin Group debts.
* PIF deals at FII, including with Hong Kong and Brookfield, were focused on domestic investment.
* Dubai’s budget sees continued surpluses in 2025-27, averaging just under 2% of GDP.
* S&P thinks Dubai’s real estate sector isn’t heading for an imminent correction, despite a surge in supply.
* The UAE signed a Cepa with Vietnam, and a major investment in VinFast is being discussed.
* Masdar completed a pilot making steel with hydrogen but pushed back its green hydrogen target.
* QatarEnergy is investing alongside Total in a 1.25GW solar power project in Iraq.
* Vale and Jinnan Steel announced a $600m investment in an iron plant in Oman’s Sohar freezone.
* Mumtalakat is selling McLaren’s auto business to Abu Dhabi’s CYVN, a year after PIF divested.
* In Lebanon, Hezbollah named a new leader (Naim Qassem), and the US proposed a 60-day ceasefire.
* The assault on northern Gaza included a strike that killed 93 people. Israel controversially banned UNRWA.
* Databank updates: Dubai budget, UAE federal Q2 fiscal, Saudi BoP and GDP, IMF REO forecasts etc.

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