GULF WEEKLY: Oil back to pre-war level, Qatar suffers major gas accident, Bahrain’s FX reserves slide

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 26 Jun 2026 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil dipped to $72, its pre-war level, as Hormuz transits picked up, despite an attack on a cargo ship.
* US-Iran talks at a Qatari hotel in Switzerland seemed to make some progress.
* Gulf foreign ministers engaged with Iranian officials, and there were proposals for regional dialogue.
* The UAE held on to fifth place in the IMD World Competitiveness Index, while most others improved.
* $7.5bn in debt was issued by QatarEnergy, Avilease, Emirates NBD, FAB, Dukhan and Burjeel.
* Inflation rose in May in Dubai (5.5%) and Bahrain (2.3%), but eased in Qatar (2.2%) and Kuwait (2.5%).
* UAE oil production has reportedly already surged to 4m b/d, vs its old OPEC+ quota of 3.4m.
* Adnoc awarded the Bab Gas Cap concession, which is targeting 1.5bcf/d production.
* The UAE is looking to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.
* MGX has raised $50bn for an AI fund and is considering a bid for Singapore’s DayOne data centers.
* Qatar suffered a major explosion when restarting the Barzan gas plant, with 13 workers killed.
* QatarEnergy says its rapid LNG restart will not be affected and is bringing in empty LNG carriers.
* QIA lifted its stake in German utility RWE to 9.9% with an additional €432m investment.
* Kuwait Petroleum’s CEO now says prewar production can be fully restored in a matter of weeks.
* Oman’s GDP growth picked up to 2.6% in Q1, led by finance (9.6%) and hydrocarbons (4.6%).
* Oman’s 2025 prelim outturn showed a deficit of -1.1% of GDP, narrower than its early estimate.
* Bahrain’s FX reserves dropped sharply to just $1.5bn (1-month import cover) in May.
* Databank updates: Oman GDP and fiscal, Abu Dhabi and UAE forecasts, Inflation for many.

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