GULF WEEKLY: Midterms reshape the war outlook, Saudi deficit expands, ADNOC signs LNG deals

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 06 Nov 2026 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* The stronger-than-expected Democratic midterm victory raised pressure on Trump to end the Iran war.
* The sharp fall in oil to $94 on Wed suggested the market was hopeful, but it has partly rebounded.
* Escalation concerns remain, and Qatar made a major mediation push to restart US-Iran talks.
* The new Congress could also scrutinize deals in the Gulf by Trump associates and AI companies.
* The Saudi deficit rose to -6.4% of GDP as oil revenue fell by -37% q/q and below non-oil for the first time.
* PMIs eased in most countries (bar Kuwait) due to cost pressures and renewed shipping problems.
* ADNOC approved its Ruwais Diyab gas project and signed LNG deals with Total and Gujarat Energy.
* ADNOC’s XRG bought a $1.5bn 2.4m t/yr stake from Shell in an LNG project in Australia.
* OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman signed four deals in Abu Dhabi and rallied support for a funding round.
* S&P affirmed Qatar at AA (Stable), despite seeing a -14% GDP decline and a -6% of GDP deficit.
* QIA and Brookfield announced support for a 1GW data center in the UK.
* Oman’s Sultan visited China, where dozens of joint funds and deals were signed by OIA.
* Energy Oman is restructuring into three holding companies (oil, gas, industries).
* Moody’s widened its forecast for Bahrain’s deficit to -19% of GDP and GDP decline to -7.7% y/y.
* Bahrain hosted the Gateway Gulf investment conference and the IISS Manama Dialogue.
* Databank updates: Saudi fiscal, Qatar inflation, PMIs, Qatar tourism, forecasts (Qatar, Bahrain, Abu Dhabi).

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