GULF WEEKLY: Iranian attacks on tankers shatter MoU, UAE oil at record 4.1m b/d in June, Kuwait deficit surges to -15% of GDP

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 10 Jul 2026 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* The most serious clashes since April happened after Iran attacked ships, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker.
* Trump declared that the MoU is “over”, but Qatari mediators are back in Iran today trying to patch things up.
* Oil surged to $80 on Wednesday but has partly eased back to about $76 on Friday morning.
* There were reports of delays at the UAE-Saudi border and issues with some bank transfers, possibly due to bilateral tensions.
* PMIs diverged in June, with Saudi Arabia rising to 53.3, the UAE declining to 50.8, and Kuwait and Qatar remaining in contraction.
* Saudi Arabia is considering a 2m b/d expansion to its bypass pipeline, potentially accepting flows from Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar.
* Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company sold $2.75bn in oversubscribed bonds, with the 10-year tranche at +95bp.
* UAE crude production surged to a record 4.1m b/d in June, according to the IEA’s estimate.
* The UAE's consolidated fiscal surplus was 3% of GDP in Q1 and up 32% y/y.
* Dubai’s GDP grew by 2.4% y/y in Q1, led by construction and finance, but the full data has not yet been published.
* EGA restarted alumina production at the damaged Al Taweelah refinery and targets 50% capacity within days.
* Adnoc signed a 1m t/yr 15-year LNG deal with Japan’s INPEX and received bids for a 4m t/yr terminal in Fujairah.
* QatarEnergy slowed its LNG restart following the latest Iranian attacks, but is running some trains at partial capacity.
* Qatar’s Power International is raising a $7bn loan, guaranteed by QNB, to finance projects in Syria.
* Kuwait’s deficit surged to -15% of GDP in the fiscal year that ended in March, possibly with some impact from the war.
* OMIFCO had a good start to trading, rising 23% in its first week.
* Bahrain’s development minister said it has not yet utilized the $5bn swap line with the UAE.
* Iraq is seeking Gulf investment in a new Energy and Development Fund backed by its central bank.
* Databank updates: Kuwait and UAE fiscal outturns, Dubai Q1 GDP, Kuwait and UAE BoP, PMIs, IMF Saudi forecasts.

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