GULF WEEKLY: Allies rally around Qatar, OPEC+ hikes production, UAE posts H1 fiscal surplus

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 12 Sep 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil rose despite the decision by OPEC+ to begin tapering the May 2023 voluntary cuts.
* Revised compensation plans from Kazakhstan postpone its cuts for overproduction until 2026.
* An IMF study found that FDI in the GCC has about triple the impact on GDP as domestic investment.
* Saudi Q2 GDP growth of 3.9% was led by finance and trade & hospitality.
* Rystad Energy expects renewables to provide a third of Saudi electricity by 2030.
* Aramco sold $3bn in 5-10yr sukuk at +70 to 80bp while PIF sold $2bn in 10yr bonds at +95bp.
* UAE Q1 GDP growth slowed to 3.9%, with non-oil at 5.3%, led by manufacturing, finance and construction.
* The UAE’s fiscal surplus was 3.9% of GDP in H1, but spending growth was high at 13% y/y.
* Adnoc transferred its listed subsidiaries to XRG and made progress on Covestro and Santos deals.
* Equity deals in the UAE included a $0.9bn Du secondary sale and a $1.7bn ADCB rights issue.
* A Qatari policeman was killed in the Israeli airstrike on Hamas’s residence in Doha.
* There has been little impact from the strike on Qatari or GCC markets.
* Qatar’s prime minister is meeting with Trump today, amidst a weak US response to the attack.
* Fitch narrowed its forecast for Kuwait’s fiscal deficit this year to -5.6% of GDP.
* Oman’s central bank launched a new system of liquidity management for Islamic banks.
* The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly endorsed a two-state solution for Palestine.
* Databank updates: UAE fiscal, Saudi & UAE GDP, Oman inflation, oil production, Saudi manufacturing.

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