Mexico Macro Monitor: Gross fixed investment recorded its fifth consecutive decline in January 2025

MEXICO - In Brief 03 Apr 2025 by Francisco González

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Gross fixed investment in January: Annual decline recorded for the fifth consecutive month, again due to a sharp contraction in construction investment. Gross fixed investment (GFI) contracted by -5.9% YoY in the first month of this year, continuing the negative trend that began in the second half of the previous year and marking five consecutive declines. As in the past two months, the January contraction was driven by a significant -9.0% drop in construction, while machinery and equipment fell -2.3% YoY. Construction suffered its sixth consecutive decline, contrasting with the average growth in the first half of 2024 (10.5% YoY) and the full-year 2023 (18.5%). The non-residential component saw the steepest decline in January (-14.2%), while the residential sector also fell but at a slower rate (-1.4%), with the latter maintaining high volatility in recent months. Public investment spending has been the main drag on construction investment, dropping -24.8% YoY in January. However, private investment also declined (-4.4%), marking its sixth consecutive monthly contraction. Graph 1 GFI by type and buyers, Jan 2025, (Annual % Change) 1/ 1/Note: Seasonally adjusted figures, except for private and public investment which uses original data Source: Data FxRates® & INEGI, Analysis GEA Grupo de Economistas y Asociados. As anticipated, the figures confirm that investment will be the demand component representing the biggest drag on economic activity this year. M&E recorded its first drop since February 2021, effectively eliminating the only recent driver of investment growth. Growth in this component had previously been sustained by positive transport equipment purchases, but ...