Free path to the presidency or two nails in a coffin?
The Ecuadorian political sky has been darkened by clouds of political abuse instead of clouds bringing desperately needed rain.
Vice President Veronica Abad was “suspended” for 150 days by an administrative decision from the Minister of Labor, and the candidacy of Jan Topic, who was coming on strong as a third option in next year’s presidential elections, was banned by the Electoral Court. Both decisions have been widely criticized nationally and internationally.
In the case of Abad, the suspension has no constitutional grounds and has been referred to as “a political shame for the country”. While the law does not rule on the suspension of a public officer elected by public vote, it does say that any worker absent from his/her job for more than 90 days will be separated from office. In the case of the vice president, the 90th day will come one day before the first round of the elections next February.
It might mean then, that she will not finish her term until May, and the appointed temporary replacement Sariha Moya will be the “de facto” vice president until the change of government next year.
In the case of Topic, four out of five judges from the electoral court—where, according to rumors, President Noboa has influence—ruled against registering his candidacy because he was linked to some public companies, which is against the electoral law. This decision, too, has been seen as an interference in the legal course of democracy and has even been questioned by Luis Almagro, the president of the OAS.
According to the constitution, Abad should have replaced Noboa for approximately 60 days starting on January 5, 2025, to allow the current President to exercise his right to lead his political campaign. However, given the open enmity between them, she became a pebble in Noboa’s shoe—a pebble that he has looked to get rid of in order to follow a path of enormous political clumsiness and legal abuse.
In other news, the current catastrophe in the electricity sector is forcing Ecuadorians to endure up to 12 hours of daily blackouts and has already taken a toll on the economy, with losses of over $3 billion in the productive sector and an estimated fall of 4% in employment added to the day-to-day problems of all citizens. As we have been warning for the last six months, it has also had an impact on Noboa's popular support. As a result, Jan Topic advanced to the third place in the presidential race, after Noboa and the Correistas, becoming an alternative to the former to fight Revolucion Ciudadana.
In this context, Noboa is heading quickly to being considered a second Rafael Correa—a political leader with no scruples when it comes to achieving his political goals. Both decisions are providing ample space for the rest of the candidates to attack Noboa and his political “tricks”. Together with the tough economic situation Ecuadorians are living, it makes us wonder whether Noboa has cleared his path to the presidency next year or added a couple of nails to his political coffin.
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