Fiscal predicament even worse than expected
Finance Minister Miguel Gómez’s presentation of the 2027 budget has brought Colombia’s fiscal predicament into sharper focus. The budget confirms that the fiscal situation inherited from the Gustavo Petro administration was significantly worse than previously acknowledged. The NCG deficit is now projected at 7.2% of GDP for 2026, and at an eye-popping 9.4% for 2027, from the 5.3% and 4.5% projected in Petro’s budget. Net debt is also forecast to rise.
The deterioration is driven primarily by higher spending and interest costs, and lower revenue assumptions. For 2027, interest payments are to rise to 4.9% of GDP, and primary spending to 20%, while tax revenues would fall to 14% of GDP. The government attributes much of the discrepancy to COP 60 trillion in obligations omitted from Petro’s budget. Gómez calls his plan the “budget of truth,” and Petro’s document a “budget of lies.”
The most recent government appointments and dismissals have sparked a broader discussion about President de la Espriella's tight grip on the profiles of his administration’s new appointees. These developments suggest that the government is not living up to its campaign promises of governing for all Colombians, regardless of political allegiance, ideology or any other factor. The rescinded appointments of Carlos Sepulveda to lead the National Planning Department, and the resignation of the highly-qualified Hannah Escobar from a technical post at the Health Ministry, are especially troubling examples. Such maneuvers do not appear linked to the technical suitability of the candidates, but rather to past political alliances, public statements and other ideological and purely personal factors.
Our hope is that these are political missteps of a new administration, and not a sign of things to come. Colombia does not need, and, frankly, cannot afford, a government that mirrors the exclusionary logic of the Petro administration, one that governed for its base and treated the rest of the country as adversaries. At a moment when the country faces daunting fiscal, security, healthcare and energy challenges, unity is more necessary than ever. De la Espriella has both the opportunity and the responsibility to prove that his rhetoric of governing for all Colombians was more than a campaign slogan. The country is watching, and the margin for disappointment is narrow.
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