February inflation: not much new or unexpected

TURKEY - Report 03 Mar 2026 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by 3% in February, broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month rate rising to 31.5% from 30.7% in January. Producer prices rose by 2.4% in the month, which meant a modest increase also in the 12-month PPI inflation rate -- to 27.6%, from 27.2% in January.

The main driver of the increase in CPI inflation (vs the same period of last year) was the food (and non-alcoholic beverage) category, which contributed 1.7 percentage points (pps) to headline CPI inflation this February, up from 0.8 pps a year earlier (Graph 2). This came on the back of a sharp monthly increase (6.9%, m/m) -- at about double the pace of February 2025 food inflation (3.2%, m/m) -- with the 12-month rate therefore surging to 36.4%, y/y, from 31.7% in January. While this was primarily driven by a sharp acceleration in unprocessed food inflation -- to 42.3%, y/y, from 32.4% in January -- processed food inflation also edged higher, rising to 32.0%, y/y, from 31.4% during this period.

Turning to core and service inflation indicators, the C-index (the most widely monitored core measure) increased by 1.5%, m/m, in February, with its 12-month rate declining slightly to 29.5% from 29.8% in January. The B-index, another closely watched measure (that excludes only unprocessed food and alcoholic beverages) rose more -- by 2.2%, m/m – but its 12-month rate also eased modestly to 29.9% from 30.1% in January. Finally, service prices rose by 3.2%, m/m, with the 12-month rate easing to 39.7% from 40.2% in January.

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