Euphoria Over Trump’s Peace Promise Seems Premature

UKRAINE - In Brief 13 Nov 2024 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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In early 2022, European leaders, as well as the U.S., assumed that the occupation of Ukraine was imminent. Germany's Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, told the Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin that Russia would occupy Ukraine within hours. All embassies were evacuated from Kyiv in February 2022, as no one expected Ukraine to resist. The consensus was that Kyiv would fall within three days. These memories come flooding back as I observe the current euphoria around a potential peace deal that Trump has promised to secure shortly after his inauguration in January 2025. Just as in 2022, it seems that many are assuming things will play out in a pre-defined, convenient scenario for their own agendas, without consulting Ukrainians on what they think of such plans. Ukrainians, however, have a notably different view on the surge of positive headlines and numerous podcasts lauding "smart" peace proposals currently under discussion. Below is a recent opinion poll on potential territorial concessions in exchange for a peace deal with Russia. The results show that, even after three years of war and the hardships endured, Ukrainians overwhelmingly oppose territorial concessions: nearly 58% of respondents reject any concessions, a number that has held steady since May. This idea of ceding occupied territories is, however, at the core of most peace deal options I’ve seen in various sources. While the Trump administration may struggle to find a solution, and pressure for concessions will be high, it’s hard to imagine a president of a democratic country supporting a deal that the majority of voters reject. Cutting U.S. weapons supplies would be a serious issue, but with the security...