Essential CIS Politics: May 16 - June 1, 2026

CIS POLITICS - Report 01 Jun 2026 by Alex Teddy, Alexei Panin and Javier Espadas

Major headlines:

- The EU continues to inch closer to diplomatic engagement with Russia, publicly discussing appointing a special envoy to this end.

- Formal peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine remain seemingly stalled, with no publicly announced negotiations held. Russian officials expressed frustration over US linkage of economic cooperation to Ukraine talks.

- Russian aerial strikes persisted, while Ukrainian long-range drone attacks intensified against energy and military targets, marking another disappointing period for Moscow, with only limited and largely unconfirmed ground advances.

- Russian drone lands in Romania, injuring two.

- Ukrainian forces escalate logistical interdiction campaign against Russian supply lines

- Ukrainian drone strikes reportedly reduced approximately 32 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity by May 25, although Forbes disputed severe gasoline shortage forecasts.

- BRICS foreign ministers concluded their May 15 New Delhi meeting without a joint statement amid deep divisions over the US-Israeli war against Iran, and reached limited consensus on other global issues.

- The US Treasury extended a 30-day sanctions waiver on Russian seaborne oil to assist nations affected by Strait of Hormuz closure.

- Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to China on May 20 yielded over 40 agreements strengthening strategic partnership and advancing the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. Bilaterial trade of USD 260 bn is projected in 2026.

- On May 24, French President Emmanuel Macron telephoned Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, breaching the European Union’s diplomatic isolation of Minsk in place since summer 2020.

- Zelensky’s celebration of WW2-era Nazi collaborators sparks diplomatic furor from Poland.

- Russia signs military cooperation agreement with Taliban-led Afghanistan during a Moscow security forum meeting.

- Russian President Vladimir Putin’s May 27-29 state visit to Kazakhstan produced 15 agreements, including construction of the country’s first nuclear power plant near Lake Balkhash at a cost of USD 16.5 bn.

- Trump endorsed Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan ahead of the parliamentary elections and announced plans to advance the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.

- On May 30 Russia recalled its ambassador to Armenia for consultations after Yerevan’s advancing European Union ties, warning that simultaneous EAEU and EU membership is incompatible and threatening economic measures.

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