Economic performance is mixed across sectors, with trends still hard to pin down

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 02 Jul 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Rosstat’s latest 1Q26 GDP data by end-use confirmed a 0.2% y-o-y drop, and in seasonally adjusted terms, output shrank by 0.7% Q-o-Q. National accounts are currently based on 2021 prices, and interestingly, seasonally adjusted figures show GDP as flat y-o-y, even slightly higher. Household consumption rose 3.5% y-o-y, in line with last year’s quarterly average pace, while government spending grew 1.7%, a bit above the 2025 average. Investment in production capacity plunged 12.5% y-o-y. Since 2022, Rosstat has stopped publishing net export details, but residual estimates suggest a 1.9% y-o-y drop in 1Q26. The economy seems split—consumption, especially private, is holding steady, while other sectors are struggling, which isn’t surprising given Russia’s current geopolitical situation.The economy’s division and trends were largely confirmed by recent monthly statistics, which still show some quirks—especially in industry, where m-o-m and y-o-y figures continue to mismatch, as we repeatedly noted before. Ongoing revisions of historical data are gradually helping to clarify the picture, but only partially. For example, the output indicator for the five basic sectors combined (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, and transportation) now offers a consistent time series after revisions. In 5M26, output for these sectors was down just 0.1% y-o-y, with some improvement in recent months following a sharp contraction in January and February. It’s still unclear how Rosstat managed to align the five-sector statistics without adjusting industrial data.Retail sales rose 5.0% y-o-y in 5M26 and 7.8% in May alone. Other household consumption indicators, like consumer services are ...