Economic growth remains steady

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 15 Jul 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator, which tracks monthly aggregate economic activity across industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade, and communications, grew by 5.1% y-o-y in 1H26, up from 4.3% y-o-y in 5M26. The Bureau also released detailed data on 1Q26 GDP by production and end-use, showing GDP up 3.0% y-o-y, while the short-term indicator rose 2.5% over the same period. The Kazakh president recently stated that GDP grew 4.1% y-o-y in 1H26, which seems a reasonable estimate given the wide variation in sectoral growth rates in 1Q26 for various reasons—for instance, government consumption jumped 12.8%, helping to offset negative effects from damage to the CPC oil terminal early in the year. The fastest-growing sectors in 1H26 were construction (up 15.2% y-o-y), transportation and warehousing (7.1%), and trade (5.7%), with retail trade up 3.8% and wholesale trade climbing 6.6%. Industry expanded by 3.5%, communications by 4.3%, and agriculture by 4.4%. Interestingly, a year ago, the short-term indicator grew in 1H25 much faster (by 9.0% y-o-y), with much stronger growth across all sectors. Overall, the latest figures suggest that the 4.6%-4.8% GDP growth projected by some international organizations looks achievable.