Early elections, trip notes, etc.

TURKEY - Report 03 May 2026 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Since President Erdogan needs early elections to be eligible for the next presidential race and with only two years left to the deadline for regularly scheduled ones, it is natural that this topic will steadily increase in importance. Despite numerous alleged election dates swirling at the scuttlebutt, the politics author asserts boldly that the reigning Republic Alliance has not made up its collective mind about a date, with a firm decision only politically possible after the Gulf Crisis (Iran War) ends, the fate of CHP is determined and there is progress in the (Kurdish) Peace Process.

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After a very quick rundown of last week’s data releases, the econ author shares a few highlights on his recent brief trip to London, where he had a chance to meet several investors and colleagues. As regards the latter, the questions and discussions focused primarily on the CBRT and the path forward. There will be a number of important data releases next week, of which April inflation tops the list. Two polls we saw place the median CPI inflation forecast at 3.2%, with which we broadly concur.

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