Current account turned positive in 2Q26 and could stay in green in 2026 as a whole

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 04 Aug 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov
The current account moved into surplus in 2Q26, hitting about $3.0 bln after a $2.0 bln deficit in 1Q26, bringing the 1H26 surplus to roughly $1.0 bln. This is a sharp turnaround from the $3.6 bln deficit in 1H25 and the $12.5 bln shortfall for all of 2025. In 4Q25, the deficit widened to $5.2 bln, while the USD/KZT, which had hovered between 540–550 in 3Q25, began strengthening, reaching 450–455 in 2026 before easing to around 475 recently. Balance of payments data show volatile capital account figures, with foreign direct and portfolio investment balances swinging between positive and negative, which could explain the tenge’s counterintuitive moves. Notably, the NBK’s statistical error was around +$3.6 bln in 1H25 but flipped to about –$1.0 bln in 1H26. We’ll need some time to dig deeper into these numbers and decipher them. All in all, if Brent stays above $75/bbl and export routes remain clear, the current account could stay positive through year-end and the tenge will likely remain strong. Despite the stronger tenge, monthly inflation has stayed relatively high, though lower than last year. In June 2026, m-o-m inflation was 0.6%, with y-o-y slowing to 10.2%. Seeing moderate disinflation, the NBK trimmed its base rate by 25 bps to 16.75% on July 24, and may stay cautious for the rest of the year as inflation could pick up in autumn with increased budget spending.

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