Politics: The concentration of power and populism in the 4T have resulted in little effectiveness in economic development and security
In her nine months in office, Claudia Sheinbaum’s priorities have been aimed at a) concretizing AMLO’s “Plan C” of enshrining the 4T’s policies in the constitution, thereby altering the country’s political regime and further concentrating power in the presidency and b) limiting the damage caused to Mexico by Donald Trump’s policies on trade and migration. In the process she has largely left key domestic issues unattended to. These include a stagnant economy, the critical state of public finances with an increased public debt, and an unabated public security crisis.
This has been accompanied by an increasingly authoritarian trend marked by its utter lack of interest in reaching agreements with other forces and exacerbated by the existence of several power centers. These power centers include the President herself, former President AMLO, internal Morena groupings encrusted in Congress, and the military. It is never clear who is really in command.
The populist-authoritarian model, largely based on political and ideological criteria, is not only bad for the country in terms of democracy, but its intolerance of criticism also makes it more difficult to correct errors. This mix of largely concentrated power, internal disputes, and populist policies is a toxic combination for government effectiveness. Economic growth is obviously key to ensuring the 4T’s goals, but the political regime and its rigid populist ideology (nationalism + statism) are obstacles to boosting the economy.
The 4T’s claim to fame, reducing poverty, will largely depend on economic growth, which allows for real wage increases, and generating the fiscal revenue needed to finance the government’s much touted social programs. Therefore, the current social and wage policies face a problem of economic sustainability in the medium term.
The rule of law, essential for guaranteeing the necessary investor confidence, is being weakened, especially in light of the judicial elections, with its immediate, medium, and long-term implications. And the persistence and consolidation of ties between criminal organizations and the political elite further erodes investor confidence as well as relations with the United States, and therefore also negatively affects governance and economic growth. All this, coupled with an uncertain external environment, means that the Sheinbaum administration and its goals will likely be in for some rough sledding in the immediate and medium term.
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