Both retail sales and industrial output followed their respective trends in February

HUNGARY - In Brief 07 Apr 2025 by Istvan Racz
Retail sales fell by 0.6% mom, but it grew by 3.3% yoy, in volume terms, in February. The fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100, source: KSH), suggests that it was a correction after January's outstandingly robust result, back to an otherwise significantly increasing trend: So, the trend of strengthening remained, but no acceleration was observed. Unfortunately, industry looked much worse, shrinking by 1.3% mom, 8% yoy in February. Output also maintained its long-term trend, which, however, is a genuinely negative one (another fixed-base chart, Dec 2010 = 100, source:KSH): For sure, Mr. Trump's 25% tariff on imported cars from April 3 and on imported car components from early May is likely to push the domestic car manufacturing industry even lower. It is also a serious question how much all the major car and battery manufacturers which are currently executing large new capacity extensions in Hungary will be able/prepared to maintain the size and/or the speed of their planned investments.  

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