In between a rock and a hard place on inflation

TURKEY - Report 08 Nov 2024 by Murat Ucer

In the last Inflation Report of the year, the CBRT revised the inflation forecasts for end-2024 and end-2025 materially upwards to 44% (from 38%) and 21% (from 14%), respectively (both midpoints). While the former is no surprise at this point, the latter revision is a bit more significant than we expected - and a bit awkward, to say the least -- given that the figure was 17.5% as recently as in the MTP. With a 5 percentage point band around it, the upper limit of next year’s inflation forecast is now at 26%, very close to, incidentally, the analysts’ end-2025 forecast in the CBRT’s Expectation Survey (25.6%).

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