Better than expected headline, tough road ahead

TURKEY - Report 03 Apr 2026 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by a somewhat lower than expected 1.9% in March, with the 12-month rate declining to just under 31%, from 31.5% in February. Monthly PPI inflation was 2.3% in March, leading to a modest increase in the 12-month PPI rate to 28.1%, up from 27.6% in the previous month. Benign food inflation in the month was a key driver of the decline in annual inflation (in a reversal of sorts from February), which contributed 0.5 pp to inflation this March vs. 1.2 pp last March. In contrast, transportation category had the exact opposite effect, contributing 0.8 pp to March inflation this year, vs. nil last March.

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