August CPI and budget numbers require a close look from analysts

HUNGARY - In Brief 08 Sep 2026 by Istvan Racz

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We have just received the August CPI-inflation data, which looks kind of all right at first glance, but is not at all very good after all, and the August cash budget figures, which look ugly, while being quite favourable after a closer look.So, the 0.2% mom, 1.3% yoy August CPI-inflation data looks quite all right after a surprisingly low 1.2% yoy in July and against the 1.4% yoy median expectation of analysts in Portfolio.hu's survey. But both non-fuel and core inflation rates rose as well marginally, to 1.6% yoy and 2% yoy respectively, and the EU's harmonised inflation rate (HICP) was actually 1.8% yoy, materially higher than the national definition of the same indicator. The latter has been quite rarely mentioned so far, but now that the authorities are aiming at euro convergence, the HICP is starting to matter the most of all, as meeting the related convergence criterion can only be measured on the basis of a common statistical standard.In addition, KSH's +0.6% mom figure for the August increase of fuel prices seems to be quite conservative, in view of the +4.1% mom number published by the privately operated local holtankoljak.hu website. For sure, the two numbers do not have to be the same, for differences between the ways of their estimation, but with such a big difference, there is some suspicion left behind that KSH's methodology may have exported some of the August price increase to September. And fuel prices have kept increasing so far this month as well.Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry has reported the August cash deficit of the central government. As Minister Kármán warned previously, this looks just very ugly, with its annualised ratio to GDP reaching 30.5...