Armenia: Opposition takes Gyumri in a potentially key milestone in Armenian politics

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA - In Brief 17 Apr 2025 by Ivan Tchakarov
As I anticipated, the Council of Elders of the second-largest city in Armenia was able yesterday to elect Vardan Ghukasyan (the leading candidate from the Communist party) as the new mayor of Gyumri. This is an important event in Armenian politics for at least three key reasons. First, it demonstrates that Pashinyan's long rule (since taking the helm as a PM in 2018) has finally started to be perceived by the broader public more as a burden than a boon. Vardan Ghukasyan, who is in fierce opposition to Pashinyan and openly advocates that Armenia improves its relation with Russia, was elected head of the city. Thus, Nikol Pasninayn (and his Civil Contract party) failed to prevent the loss of Armenia's second largest city by underhanded means, and the liberal use of administrative pressure was not enough to secure a victory for the Civil Contract candidate. I suspect that the ruling group will not accept this state of affairs easily and may try to punish the opposition mayor in one way or another as it has done on different occasions in different locations, but this time around the scheme may not work. The defeat of the ruling Civil Contract in Gyumri recent has caused concerns within the party. While party leaders publicly voice confidence in the party's popularity and its success in future elections, these messages are aimed more at calming disoriented party members who see that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's approval rating has hit all-time low. Many within the party believe that CivilContract has little chance of retaining power if free and fair elections are held.  Second, the opposition, which has always been perceived as being too fractious and unable to find com...

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