A reasonably good GDP number, received by local analysts as a disappointment

HUNGARY - In Brief 30 Oct 2026 by Istvan Racz

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Q3 2026 GDP growth has just been reported at 0.1% qoq, 1.5% yoy by KSH. This is a very preliminary number, estimated on the basis of a model, rather than measured and aggregated in a bottom-up manner. So the sectorial details and demand components are still missing at this point. This follows 1.8% yoy growth in H1, and it makes 1.7% yoy growth for Q1-Q3, which is pretty good for an actual figure, compared to our 1.4% growth forecast for the whole of 2026. However, we do not seem to be representing the analyst consensus this time, to say the least. Local analysts, expecting +1.7% yoy for Q3, appeared disappointed, some seriously disappointed. We do not quite get their point, as it has been known for a while that agricultural results turned really nasty in Q3, due to the unfortunate weather/climate catastrophe that we have just experienced. Sectorial experts said already two months ago that a very large fallout in terms of agricultural output must be expected, one leading expert putting it to as much as -40% from last year. On that basis, we put agricultural GDP to -15% for this year, in view of the fact that costs must also be lower if you do not even go out to the fields for a harvest, because it would not be worth to do so. Of that annual setback, only -4.3% yoy was realised in H1, and so the least we could say about the likely annual agricultural value-added fallback, even tentatively, is that the bulk is due to be accounted for at some point in H2. Against that backdrop, this morning's GDP data appears to be quite favourable. The rest of the economy, mainly industry and also services, still appear to have been working fine. In H1, ex-agriculture GDP grew by 2% yoy.