A general view of the economy ahead of the midterm elections—Part II: External issues

ARGENTINA - Report 05 Aug 2025 by Joaquin Cottani

This report completes the analysis begun in our July 22, 2025 report regarding Argentina’s main economic and financial issues 19 months into the Milei administration and three months before a midterm election that will critically influence what the administration can accomplish for the remainder of its mandate. Part I dealt with domestic issues. This report discusses the external issues, among them: 1) Is the current account deficit too large? Is it sustainable? 2) How will the national government be able to service its voluminous external debt in 2026-2028? 3) Is the lack of international reserves holding back Argentina’s growth potential? What must the government do to start accumulating reserves? 4) Is the ARS overvalued? What is keeping it from depreciating more? And finally, 5) Should we expect a large depreciation after the election?

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